Modi and Rahul -- two different kinds of carpetbaggers !

For those who believe that Narendra Modi 's leadership will make changes, there certainly will be a transformation. The transformation will not be for the ordinary. It will be for the money bags. Ordinary Indians will continued to be stripped of their hard earned savings!  
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 Anonymous  Author 

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"Yaar, we all know Mukesh and Gautam (Adani) will make lots more money when Modi comes to power. But we'll also make some money na. So why are you opposing him, man?"

I was pinged this yesterday by a very-well-known, very-well-to-do entrepreneur pal of mine.

Why indeed?

Why not make hay when the sun's gonna shine?

I'm a true-blue capitalist, and by all accounts I should be supporting Modi - instead of the socialist-sop-wielding Congress or the not-sure-if-they're-Communist-or-not AAP. Right?

But here's what I figured. The Congress is like the Chinese or North Korean government - socialist in name only and corrupt billionaires to the core themselves.

While the BJP is like the earlier Mexican government - basically run to the whims and fancies of billionaire cement-to-telecom owner Carlos Slim. It was proud for some Mexicans to see Carlos Slim become the richest man in the world - but the price of that was higher costs for every citizen in the country for basic necessities and a near-collapse of the country. And a second, more dangerous price paid was the decay of every government institution into a cesspool of corruption.

Sure Modi will be more business-friendly - if the rampaging stock market is to be believed. Antilla will grow even taller.

As Modi lovers say "Modi will bring progress." All I'll add is "...to Ambani and Adani, not to you and me".

Modi will bring with him an era of big business deciding on government policy - and examples are already abound, with the Modi government recommending a price of $14 per million BTUs of gas to be paid out of our pockets to Reliance instead of their earlier committed $2.34 per mBTU - and in the other billionaire Adani getting land and government infrastructure at throw away prices in BJP-led Rajasthan. As it turns out, the Gujarat State Minister for Petroleum, who is responsible for this act of wonderful generosity is, believe it or not, Ambani's son-in-law! Who thought only the Congress would resort to theft by the damaad?

BJP's difference with the Congress will basically be that instead of the government stealing from us and keeping it all only for themselves, this time they'll steal from us, and give it to the Ambanis and Adanis, apart from keeping a lot for themselves - after all, the BJP still has stalwart-thieves like Yeddyurappa, Sriramulu and Solanki at their core.

What does this do to our future? Every institution in the country gets even more rotten. In a time where I want my kids to grow up in a country where they have an equality of opportunity, I wonder if they'll be arrested for crashing a car while the Akash Ambanis get off scot-free by gifting Audis to all accident victims and making some poor driver take the fall in court instead.

I'd like our government institutions to mean something. My dad served in the Armed Forces for 30 years - and today it's a place where you can't get to be chief unless you approve the purchase of expensive weaponry that the ruling politicians get a kickback on.

I'd like the government to be a place where good people join and work. Not people who want a sure-fire way to make money. Once upon a time, it was a matter of pride to be in the IAS. Today, mention you're in government service and the other person eyes you as if to think "Kitna khaata hoga".

Today, how many of you really want your kids to work in government or policy? I'm sure even the Modi-fans among you will say "Nahin yaar - gandi jagah hai". Well, folks, your support to Modi and his bunch of corrupt capitalist backers will make the jagah stay ganda for longer.

There's no point having a Telecom regulator, when Mukesh Ambani and Ratan Tata use Niira Radia to fix who the next telecom minister is going to be. (And to all who believe Ratan Tata is against corruption, perish the thought. Maybe his forefathers were. Go back and read how the Tatas bent over for A Raja, and vice versa, in the Radia Tapes episode and you'll lose any cherished notions of the continuing ethics of the Tata group. Anyway, back to the matter at hand.)

There's no point in having a contract with the government, when a private company like Reliance can get ministers like Jaipal Reddy, Mani Shankar Aiyar and others changed at will to help them break the contracts and rip us off more.

This short-term thinking - "let's get a corrupt government that is big-business friendly for a change" - is what will keep India a rotting carcass for even longer. And this short term move will delay our true economic and business freedom by another five years. It's not a temporary measure - "we should get a honest government after 5 years because AAP is not ready" as some say.

These 5 years are what we are poised to grow in, after the Congress and NCP ripped us off us for the last 10 years. And if the BJP coalition win 272 seats, these 5 years will not be very different from the Congress, with more big sops to the Ambanis and Adanis - not to mention all the coalition partners who will have to be given "plum" ministries to plunder as a price for their support. We will have even more A Rajas getting even more kickbacks.

Believe me, all that stock market boom you're seeing now will dissipate in six months when people, the market and foreign institutions see that it's not a new government - but the same government with different faces. As a Congress (I) friend of mine says - "hum ne bahut khaa liya. Ab paanch saal hajam karenge, inko ab khaane do. Phir vaapis aa jaayenge."

This is not the change we must be voting for.

Sure, I'm told, all this is fine, Arvind Kejriwal is a good guy but he really can't form a government, can he?

Many people in Delhi thought so- so he landed up with only 28 seats. But once people saw he could come to power, and make a difference, many more were ready to vote for him and his party. I understood they would have won 50 out of 70 seats if people knew others were also voting for them. Media didn't help them - they almost never covered the AAP, till after the win. Media's doing the same now.

That's all it takes - your vote. Don't worry about who you think others are voting for. Don't worry about what you read in the papers or watch on TV. Forget the opinion polls, exit polls, whatever. Vote your heart and vote your conscience. Vote for the folks who can give you the country you want to live in, and your kids to grow up in. Your vote, every vote, every seat will make a difference.

Sure, not every candidate these AAP guys put up is perfect. But at least they throw out candidates if a rotten one turns up - unlike other parties who promote the crooks. There's a process here to ensure integrity - while there's nothing as such in the Congress and BJP. And, come on guys, they're a year old and they have no money. They're not built out of billions like the Congress and the BJP. Be a little patient. It's a scrappy startup taking on the evil empires. Luke Skywalker against Darth Vader. Give it a chance.

Then I'm told you want a government with experience? Really? What has decades of experience of BJP and Congress brought us? Which politician has governance experience really? The government is run by babus. And what you need is someone to straighten them up. Not corrupt them even more, like the Ambanis and Adanis and politicians in their pocket do so well.

We don't need Ph D's and grey beards to govern - a base of honesty, integrity and transparency is a far better place to start than 30 or 50 years of thievery and injustice. It's always better to vote for a honest novice than for an experienced thief.

But, you say, "aren't these AAP guys are communist / socialist / Trotskyist or whatever?" Actually, I don't think so. They're a party where the ideology is still forming and where the fundamental base is honesty and integrity. But they at least have a manifesto out. The BJP doesn't yet, by the way.

And as far as being more democratic versus being more Republican, like Modi, I don't mind paying more taxes - if those taxes actually go to build better roads, schools and hospitals that my children and their children can use - and not into Ambani's, Adani's, Pawar's, Sonia's or Praful's pockets, or pockets of the top 0.1%.

From what I've seen, the AAP folks reflect the will of their members and voters. I personally think their resistance to FDI in retail is stupid - and I've told them so, whenever I've met one of their functionaries. And their response is refreshing" "Sir, come and talk with us, explain why you think so, and we're happy to change our minds if we believe you're right". Now I haven't heard any other party say anything like this. Their answers are usually "Kitne paise doge?"

So can these guys get 272 seats to form a government? Perhaps, perhaps not. But I don't think anyone else will, either. And if we are going to be faced with a hung and horse-trading parliament, it's good to have as many new, honest folks in there as possible instead of experienced horse-traders. Give honesty and integrity a vote for a change instead. Every vote counts, every seat counts.

And if it's a hung parliament, it's fine. It's ok. We'll have mid-term polls and more of the honest will get voted in. And if that doesn't do it fully, we'll have another mid-term poll. I have no problem with more mid-term polls. It's painful, but not that huge a price to pay, compared to the benefit of flushing out the rogues.
We'll need one or more re-boots of parliament to get these corrupt Congress BJP, Ambani and Adani viruses out of our system - and the sooner the reboots the better.

And if a hung parliament will cause the reboot, so be it. Let's vote for a hung parliament. Let's deny the 272 and the rule of Ambani.

Oh, as some of you have wondered, why isn't more information coming out about Modi and Congress and Reliance in media?

It's simple - a Congress person owns HT and Mint.

While Ambani owns CNN IBN, CNBC Awaaz, Lokmat, Eenadu, all ETV channels, First Post, First Biz, Forbes India, NDTV, all NDTV channels and 9X.
That's why. These are the only places you'll see a Modi wave, and not on the ground.

Neither of these folks own Facebook or Twitter or Google Plus yet. (Where, by the way, the AAP leads the others by far in engagement, despite the bigger bucks the old guard is throwing around. And despite the BJP guys coming and spitting venom in my comments as they've done every time. You're welcome again, folks! )

So if you believe this post might be a point of view to get across to others, then you could help.

I did put this up earlier, and it went a certain distance. This time I'm paying Facebook a little bit of cash to push it out further. But you could help defray some of those costs, by sharing it with your friends. Sharing is free

Thank you!

Reliance Industries, Why are they above the law of the country ?

A Detailed Dispassionate Look at the Gas Pricing Policy is the Need of The Hour !!-- 

TSR Subramanian

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The FIR filed by the government headed by Arvind Kejriwal against some Union ministers and Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) has been prominently in the news in recent days. Clearly the Aam Aadmi Party has gone to town on the subject and is likely to refer to corruption and collusion in high places to bolster their electoral prospects. This piece has nothing to do with the politics of the issue; it looks at the facts and related circumstances of the technical and financial aspects of the gas price issue.

The KG-DWN-98/3 deepwater block (also referred to as the KG-D6 block), with a contract area of 7,645 sq km, was awarded in 2000 to a consortium of RIL, the operator, and Niko Resources Limited (NIKO) through a Production Sharing Contract (PSC) for the exploration for natural gas. RIL had signed a contract with NTPC in 2004 to supply gas for its power plants at $2.34 per mmbtu for a period of 17 years. In 2007, the gas price was revised to $4.2 per unit, under RIL pressure. Very recently, the Central government has decided to double the gas price from $4.2/mmbtu to $8.4/mmbtu that would take effect from April 1, 2014.

The cost of production of gas is much less than $2.34 per mmbtu. The fact that RIL had signed long-term agreements with NTPC and Reliance Natural Resources Ltd (RNRL) for supplying gas at that rate for 17 years means that at the rate of $2.34 per mmbtu also, RIL was making significant profits. RIL’s partner NIKO has a 25-year contract with the Bangladesh Government to supply gas at the rate of $2.34/mmbtu.

After this price doubling to $8.4/mmbtu, the gas price in India has become one of the highest in the world. The cost of production at the well-head was never calculated by the government or the Rangarajan Committee appointed by the government. No attempt was made to determine cost of production accurately and independently. According to experts, the maximum price of gas at the well-head would not be more than $1.43 and the current price of $4.2 is already one of the highest in the world. There is also no explanation as to why, when the entire domestic production is consumed internally, the price was fixed in US dollars. This fluctuation in the dollar rate has now effectively increased the price of gas even further.

Even if the government was right that new price would bring in more investment in exploration, there is absolutely no justification for raising the price of gas from existing fields. More importantly, PSC does not permit a revision in the price of natural gas once the field has been declared commercial, and this field was declared commercial at $4.2/mmbtu.

In much of the western hemisphere, the wholesale price (which includes the cost of production at well-head and bulk transportation) is linked to the Henry Hub, based in the US. The average wholesale price for natural gas at Henry Hub was $3.73 in the year 2013 and $2.77 in 2012; this is consistent with the expert estimation that well-head price is of the order of $1 to $1.5 at the most, in general—RIL had in 2009 written to the DG Hydrocarbon in the petroleum ministry that their production cost at the well-head is less than $1 per unit. There is strong suspicion that RIL deliberately delayed recovery/production in anticipation of increased rate fixation by the government, going beyond the agreed terms of the PSC.

Clearly, the pricing formula adopted is inexplicable. To give an example, let us look at the pit-head cost of coal in India and compare with the price of imported coal—the landed cost of imported coal is four to five times that of the domestic pit-head coal. It would be absurd to fix the pit-head price in India at landed cost of imported coal. It is obvious that the price now agreed to with RIL clearly bears no relationship with costs. As per calculations, the impact of this price increase would cost a minimum of `54,500 crore every year at current dollar prices.

It is to be noted that crores of poor in India would be severely affected on account of the huge benefits given to the contractors. Cooking gas prices would at least double; inflation would increase significantly impacting food and energy security giving rise to higher prices for fertilisers, food products, cooking gas and the like. A vast majority of the Indian population lives below the poverty line of $1.25 per day and this will be impoverish them even further.

In principle, businesses will thrive only if they make profits; we can’t expect industry or business to make losses. It is not healthy, however, if governments through crony capitalism route encourage windfall profits—this is not the formula for sustainable development. The problem is further aggravated due to the enormous impact this decision will have on the common man in India, who will pay through his nose at exorbitant rates, to a private contractor, for access to a raw material available within India. A detailed dispassionate look at all the facts and circumstances of this matter is imperative.

Tsrsubramanian@gmail.com

Subramanian is a former Cabinet Secretary